MEXICO CITY—In a stark reversal, new evidence shows that Mexican views of the United States are at a decade and a half low with the presidency of Donald J. Trump. Survey research from the Pew Center indicates that about two-thirds of Mexicans now have a negative opinion of their northern neighbor, the mirror opposite from only two years ago. Mexico and the U.S. share a complicated, conflict-ridden history, yet anti-U.S. sentiment had diminished during recent decades of economic integration and increased immigration. The return of anti-Americanism is a regression in the bi-national relationship, reminiscent of the pre-NAFTA era and Iraq War period. This dramatic shift has political implications for the upcoming 2018 elections in Mexico, everyday diplomatic efforts on issues from migration to terrorism, and is illustrative of a lack of U.S. global leadership.
President Trump kicked off his candidacy calling Mexicans “rapists and criminals,” questioning the ability of a judge to do his job because “he’s a Mexican” (he’s actually from Indiana like Vice President Pence), and boosting campaign chants to build a “big, beautiful wall” that Mexico will pay for. So, it’s no coincidence that only five-percent of Mexicans have confidence that Mr. Trump will “do the right thing regarding world affairs.” (This was 10-times higher under President Obama). With his divisive rhetoric and aggressive actions, Mr. Trump has made anti-Americanism great again in Mexico.
Left, right, and center, Mexicans across the political spectrum share similar unfavorable views of the United States. As my friend and Wilson Center political analyst Miguel Toro points out in his recent post, gridlock is growing in Mexican governance as elections approach. Yet what unites these disparate factions is their opposition to the policies of the Trump Administration (the wall, deportations, NAFTA abandonment, climate change). At a precarious moment in Mexican politics, anti-U.S. sentiment is on the rise and uniting a frustrated Mexican public.
The national mood in Mexico is pessimistic and primed to scapegoat the U.S., which has historically been viewed with suspicion and distrust. According to the Pew Center survey, 85 percent of people are dissatisfied with the nation’s direction, with seven-in-ten expressing the economic condition to be bad. On the left, supporters of MORENA and PRD are particularly disappointed with the economy compared to people who identify with President Nieto’s PRI. Nieto favorability (28 percent) continues to fall and seven-out-of ten disapprove his handling of U.S. relations, which significantly decreased after inviting then-candidate Trump to Mexico in 2016. These conditions set up a Mexican presidential election centered on changing the nation’s course and combating a hostile U.S. President Trump.
Political strategist David Axelrod argues that voters tend to choose “the remedy, not the replica” in elections. President Nieto was widely seen as appeasing Mr. Trump during his campaign visit and as weak while insults are tweeted and natural disasters are ignored. A potential remedy for Mexican voters could be a strongman, nationalist from the left. I’m not the first political analyst to place Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) as the presidential frontrunner, and I’m concerned what the rise of populist nationalism and the return of anti-Americanism could mean for U.S.-Mexico relations. As Mexican presidential candidates bash the United States as a political piñata, Mr. Trump will respond with I-told-you-so rhetoric, and this escalation has the potential to poison U.S. views toward Mexico.
Spoke to President of Mexico to give condolences on terrible earthquake. Unable to reach for 3 days b/c of his cell phone reception at site.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 14, 2017
President Trump’s election reignited anti-Americanism in Mexico, but with different levels of intensity. Mexicans living near the northern border have more favorable views of the U.S. than those living farther away. Young, educated, and higher-income Mexicans also have more favorable views and, overall, one-in-three Mexicans would still chose to live in the United States if given the opportunity. In conversations with my former Chicago colleagues from Mexico, they expressed that their opinions of the U.S. also had changed, as they grappled with the role of race in U.S. politics. A nation renowned for its rule of law, freedom of speech, and defense of human rights, now seemed diminished. At a carne asada I attended after Charlottesville, many Mexicans were shocked that a neo-Nazi militia could take over a town, and appalled that a U.S. President would not condemn their violence and stand up for democratic values of equality and dignity.
“America’s ability to lead the world depends not just on the example of our power, but on the power of our example,” argues Joe Biden (former U.S. Vice President and America’s favorite uncle) in a recent New York Times op-ed. The world is not only watching, but reacting to the lack of global leadership from the White House with anti-Americanism. Declining Mexican attitudes toward the U.S. will hamper our bi-national ability to promote peace and prosperity in North America, and diminish the potential of millions of lives. Renewed leadership, on both sides of the border, is necessary to correct our course. I hope in the meantime that new voices from entrepreneurs to mayors, to civic activists and concerned citizens can fill the void.
Source: Vice, Margaret, and Hanyu Chwe. “Mexican Views of the U.S. Turn Sharply Negative.” Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project, 14 Sept. 2017, www.pewglobal.org/2017/09/14/mexican-views-of-the-u-s-turn-sharply-negative/
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